Adult Social Care Accommodation Strategy 2024-2034

Islington's population

Islington’s population has changed in the last decade. The number of residents has increased by 5.1% since 2011, and this has been driven by a 12.6% increase in the number of people aged 65 years and over (Reference: Islington population change, Census 2021 - ONS) 

Increased life expectancy is contributing to our ageing population. From 2001 to 2020, life expectancy for males and females in Islington has increased from 73.3 to 78 and 79.5 to 82.6 years respectively. Unfortunately, there has been no increase in years living in good health. Older adults are on average living with a disability for the last 16-18 years of their life, which will be driving increasing demand for social care. 

Dementia prevalence is increasing in the population. As of May 2024, the NHS estimates that the number of people in Islington aged 65+ with dementia is 1,459 (Reference: NHS Primary Care Dementia Data, May 2024). By 2030, the number is expected to reach 2,056 (Reference: Alzheimer's Society. Local Dementia Profile Islington. London: Alzheimer's Society, 2021), although there is evidence that this is an underestimate (Reference: Number of dementia cases could be 42% higher than previously estimated by 2040. UCL Home. [Online] 27 10 2023). There are 190 people under the age of 65 with a diagnosis.  

Nationally, trends suggest that a growing number of people aged 50 years and over are ageing without children. Many people in the LGBTQ and disabled communities have no access to the informal care that offspring provide to help their parent to remain in their own home (Reference: Our voices: the experience of people ageing without children - Ageing without Children, www.awwoc.org). 

In England, Islington has the third highest prevalence (about 3,886 people in 2022) of severe mental illness and the fifth highest prevalence (about 45,000 people in 2022) of common mental disorders. With population growth, there will be approximately 117 more people with severe mental illness by 2029 (Reference: Camden & Islington NHS Foundation Trust Report to Islington Council Health and Social Care Scrutiny Committee Oct 2022). 

It is predicted that the number of people with a Learning Disability in the borough will rise from 4,447 in 2020 to 4608 in 2035 (Reference: Projecting Adult Needs and Service Information System - pansi.org.uk). People with Learning Disabilities are living longer and are more likely to have early onset of comorbidities such as dementia.  

The number of people with a diagnosis of Autism Spectrum Disorder is expected to increase from 1870 in 2023 to 1971 in 2035 (Reference: Projecting Adult Needs and Service Information System - pansi.org.uk). 

During the pandemic, many residents experienced “deconditioning” during lockdowns due to inactivity and social isolation. Delayed access to care, support and health services resulted in more people experiencing complex health and social care needs. 

The combined effects of the demographic changes and the legacy of COVID-19 has resulted in a growth in demand for services, including accommodation-based services. There is a requirement for a greater level of skill in the workforce to support people with complex needs, maximise independence and sustain and improve wellbeing.

Who we support

Our Adult Social Care needs assessment helps us understand current and future demand for Adult Social Care services and shortfall of in-borough supply of accommodation. The full needs assessment is included in Appendix One [insert direct link].

As at July 2024, 2,813 people were receiving long-term support for a range of care and support needs.

Around 40% received accommodation services, including supported living, residential and nursing care. The proportion receiving accommodation services in the borough (61%) has increased since March 2023 (59%).

Physical support

Physical Support refers to residents who have physical support needs and issues with memory and cognition.  This includes people with dementia. The vast majority are older people.  

1,722 adults were receiving long-term support in July 2024.

Around 30% (493 people) are receiving accommodation-based support, with 51% living in borough and 49% out of borough.

Learning disability

631 adults were receiving long-term support in July 2024.

46% (291 people) are receiving accommodation-based support, with 52% living in borough and 48% out of borough.

Mental health

460 adults were receiving long-term support in July 2024.

72% (332 people) are receiving accommodation-based support. The majority are supported in the borough (82%).

Data source: LTS001b, internal data July 2024